Tusk to Tail: Week 10 Predictions - Do the Hogs get their first SEC win?

 

Question of the Week:

Rank the top 5 job openings in college football.

Dale:

Well, I'm not sure I can remember them all at this point but you'd have to put Penn State and LSU above the Arkansas Job based on tradition and fan support.  I'm biased but I feel like if the Admin. can work out the finances, the Hogs can compete in Football and make this an attractive job.  Though I'm still not sure it's in the top 5 by the end

of the season when you consider Auburn and Florida State might open up.

1. Florida

2. LSU

3. Penn St.

4. Arkansas

5. OSU

6. Virginia Tech

Forrest:

1. LSU
2. Florida 
3. PSU
4. Arkansas 
5. UCLA

Todd:

If Auburn and FSU opens the Hogs will continue to drop.

1. LSU

2. Gators

3. Nittany Lions

4. Razorbacks

5. Virginia Tech

The Picks: 

Mississippi State @ Arkansas

  Forrest:

Both teams come limping into this game after blowing big leads in each of their games, resulting in a loss. I don’t see how either team gets up off the mat for this one but I guess one of them will fall into a victory. Arkansas is favored by five coming into this matchup. I feel like if Arkansas wins it’ll be by the last second field goal. Maybe Arkansas will get its first conference win this weekend. I guess gimme the Hogs 45-42.

Dale:

Just like the last 5 games, I feel like the Hogs have a great chance to win this week.  I'm sure we all sound like a broken record by this point. The Hogs have to limit turnovers, run the ball well, and score in the 3rd quarter.  If they do that, they should win.

Hogs 34

State 24

Todd: 

Well the defense actually did a decent job last week holding Auburn to mostly field goals. But once again, the offense was non-existent again in the second half. The offensive mastermind BMFP has scored 7,3,0, and 3 in it's conference games besides against A&M. That doesn't equal wins in the SEC. The Hogs had more turnovers in the second half than they did points last week. The Bulldogs have lost 16 SEC games in a row. The last time Mississippi State won a SEC game? 2023 against the Hogs. The last time Arkansas won a SEC game? Last year against State. Something's gotta give Saturday afternoon. 

Let's try some reverse psychology. State 38-34.

#9 Vanderbilt @ #20 Texas

Dale: 

Vandy is hot, Texas is not.  Archie and his offense are still struggling, and I don't think Vandy's D is going to let up this week.

Vandy 31

Texas 27   

Todd:

Texas should have lost to Kentucky and Mississippi State. To think they were ranked #1 to begin the season is hilarious. They are at home this week but Pavia may just find some Vandy magic on the road. Dore's over Horns 28-24.

#18 Oklahoma @ #14 Tennessee

   Forrest: 

 Credit where it’s due Neyland is a great venue to catch a college football game. Tennessee hasn’t skipped a beat on offense since year, considering all the drama in the off-season with their quarterback. Oklahoma looked promising at the beginning of the year, but with money line Mateer going down with an injury things changed quickly. In what should be a high scoring game I really like the Volunteers to pull this one out. Vols 49-35.

Tusk to Tail Week 9 Predictions: Winless vs. Winless - Petrino or Freeze who gets first W?

 

Question of the Week:

 

How many games does Bobby have to win to get the Head Hog job?

 

David:

There is only one game left (against Miss State) in which Arkansas is expected to be favored. Any more wins than that is technically against the odds. However, Auburn and LSU could both be considering firing their coaches, which would be a huge distraction if it didn’t happen every few years. The last two games, at Texas and home against Mizzou, should provide plenty of motivation on their own. Winning three of these final games could go a long way toward a new contract for BMFP, especially if the defense improves under his watch.  We will probably know how seriously Petrino is being considered by halftime of the Missouri game.  If the Hogs fail to show up, the Petrino era could be over for good.

Jeb:

From most fans I speak with, whether they are BMFP fans or haters, they think he already has the job.  It is baffling that Pittman took repeated criticism for not being able to win close games, and his record in one score games certainly supported that criticism.  We fire Pittman, hire Petrino, and (checks notes) we promptly lose two one score games.  Now, if Petrino goes winless during this interim tenure, and he is hired, that won't exactly fire up the Hog fanbase.  If he wins two games, though, he probably gets the job. 

Todd:

If Petrino loses to a winless in conference Auburn team at home just move on. I still think if Arkansas sticks with him we are right back here again in five years looking for a new coach. Radio hosts have been saying if he beats Texas he will get the job. Come on. If he beats Texas good golly old Arkansas will Arkansas and say he beat Texas so lets give him the job. And if they do.. they deserve everything they get. Time to have higher standards Hog fans besides just beating Texas.

 

Auburn @ Arkansas

David:

This will be the best defense Arkansas has faced all year, but Auburn’s offense has struggled.  Doesn’t matter.  Points rain down like, well, rain, which should also be plenty in abundance.  Arkansas 31-28.

Jeb:

I can't name a single person on Auburn's team.  It sounds like Tiger fans are ready for Burner Phone Freeze to get the ax. I won't pick a winner here, but I would strongly recommend the over 57 wager, for entertainment purposes only of course.  Hogs 35-31

Todd:

The next two weeks are winnable. This is probably the Hogs best chance to win a game the rest of the season. But let me tell you  - Auburn's defense is for real. They have held their last 4 SEC opponents to under 25 points per game. And a a run defense only giving up 2.5 yards per carry. Hogs didn't have a turnover against the Aggies which was great to see and the offense is hitting on all cylinders. But the defense is just horrendous. It may be the worst defense in Razorback history. Petrino is 3-1 against the Tigers. Freeze loses this one he will be fired. Somebody's parade is going to get rained on. Literally. Does Taylen Green get his 3rd SEC win in two years? Think positive. Hogs 31-28.

#15 Missouri @ #10 Vanderbilt

David:

Arkansas Athletic Director Hunter Yurachek might have an easier time convincing fans that the Hogs cannot succeed in football if teams like Indiana, Missouri, and freaking Vanderbilt weren’t ranked and vying for a playoff spot.  Tenured Vandy QB Diego Pavia is dripping with swagger.  Mizzou coach Eli Drinkwitz and his band of dorks do not.  Commodores win 28-27.

 

Todd:

I would take Clark Lea as Arkansas head coach in a heartbeat. If you can win at this level at Vandy you can certainly do great things at Arkansas. No upset here. Commodores 28-24.

#3 Texas A&M @ #20 LSU

Jeb:

LSU at home at night.  It is still very hard to win in Death Valley after dark, and LSU's defense will be a small (ha ha) step up from Arkansas' last week.  I say LSU takes a little heat off of Brian Kelly, 35-28. 

Todd:

A&M's defense didn't look tough against Arkansas last week. Brian Kelley is hanging by a thread with Tiger fans and really needs this game.  LSU's offense has not clicked yet all season. At some point the Aggies have to Aggie right? Not this week. A&M 27-21.

 

#22 Texas @ Mississippi State

David:

Many would think that Texas should have dominated hapless Kentucky last week.  The Longhorns won 16-13.  Some may think that Texas should dominate Miss State this week but I’m not buying it.  28-20 Longhorns.

 

 Todd:

 Texas almost...no should have lost to Kentucky. State has a salty defense and weird things happen in Starkvegas every season. Bulldogs 24-20.

Tusk to Tail: Week 8 Predictions - Can Bobby go 4-0 against the Aggies?

 

Question of the week:

After Ole Miss beat Washington State by 3 points at home this week..is Ole Miss a fraud? Who is the best team in the SEC currently?

William Grandview:

Say what you want about Lane Kiffin, but he's had an amazing run at Ole Miss, and this year has set up perfectly for the Rebels with five of their first six games in Oxford. Now they have to go on the road to Georgia and Oklahoma in back-to-back weeks. I'll call them a fraud if they get blown out in both, but I don't expect that to happen. Ole Miss may not be as talented as they've been, but they have a culture and an identity and that goes a long way in college football. The team that emerges from the game in Athens will have a strong case to make for being the best team in the SEC, and so will the team that comes into Fayetteville if they can put away the Hogs. But even in a year where the SEC has as much parity as it's had in two decades I still think the cream of the crop is (remarkable) in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. Roll Tide!   

Forrest:

I don’t think Ole Miss is a fraud. I think it was a combination of looking head to Georgia along with a division two quarterback having some speed bumps. This weekend might prove differently, but I do think Ole Miss is for real. That will make the inexplicable loss that much better when it happens. 

Todd:

I think the Rebels are over rated and have benefited from a lack luster schedule so far. They don't look like the #4 team in the country.  This week will tell us whole lot about them as they travel to Athens. I think A&M and Bama are playing the best football in the conference right now. We will see what A&M has got on the hill tomorrow in some heavy rain.

Arkansas vs #4 Texas A&M

William Grandview:

I just can't help but think that everyday this team operates under Bobby Petrino they're going to get better. But they're not yet good enough to beat the Aggies, arguably the best team left on the schedule. I expect some wins down the stretch for the Hogs, but not this weekend.

A&M 30 Arkansas 24.

Forrest:

The team held onto the rope last week for Bobby and Knoxville, but how much longer can they do that? I think A&M is much better athletically and more sounded in the coaching department. Bobby probably has something up his sleep for this game. I like the Aggies to win, but I like Arkansas to cover the 7.5 

Todd:

The Hogs continued with their #1 ranking of most lost fumbles since 2020 in the nation by adding 3 more to their tote board in Knoxville last week. Can someone bring Houston Nutt back just to coach the "three points of pressure" again? Defense did not touch Aguilar last week and continued with a non-existent run defense but did have a few stops. Bobby is 3-0 against the Aggies as Hogs Head Coach going back to those early years of the games being in Jerry World. Hogs have given up 750 rushing in just the last 3 games. The Aggies though may run for 300 yards alone tomorrow against us. I don't see why anyone even needs to pass against this defense. Heavy rain is forecast and there may be delays. But that won't be enough to delay the inevitable turnovers and outcome of this one. Aggies 37 Hogs 27

#5 Ole Miss @ #9 Georgia

William Grandview:

This is a prove it game for Kirby and the Dawgs and a chance for payback for last year's thorough beating in Oxford. I think they make the most of it.

Georgia 37 Ole Miss 31.

Todd:

Georgia hasn't looked like Georgia of the past few years for sure. Look for Kirby to have a scheme drawn up to lock up the Ole Miss freshman sensation Trinidad. 

Dawgs 34-27 

#11 Tennessee @ #6 Alabama

Forrest:

The third Saturday in October. Arkansas may have looked better last week with Tennessee also looking ahead to Alabama. Who is to say. At the end of the day I do like the Tide to roll the Volunteers in this one. 

Todd:

The Volunteers defense has done a disappearing act lately. I think Ty Simpson and the Tide's passing game take this game over. Who is smoking the cigars at the end? The Tide. 35-27

Tusk to Tail: Week 7 Predictions - How will the Hogs do on Rocky Top?

                       Our last visit to Knoxville. October 3rd, 2015. Hogs 24-20

Question of the week:

Who would you like to be the next football coach of the Razorbacks?

Craig:

I feel like the next coach of the Razorbacks will be Dan Mullen or Bobby Petrino.  I just don’t see a high-profile coach or one of the hot new names as an option for where we are is a program.  We must fix the inconsistency in our NIL program to attract a top-notch football coach.  Petrino and Mullen check a lot of boxes. 1. SEC coaching experience. 2. I feel like both these guys want the Arkansas job. 3. Both coaches have shown they can get the most out of a program that’s not exactly SEC elite.  Let’s put together enough NIL money for these guys to be competitive.  We should never be behind Ole Miss, Missouri and Vanderbilt in football.

David:

The part of my mind dedicated to the Arkansas Razorbacks entered the transfer portal some time ago. My only knowledge of the coaching search is what I have heard from others. The most popular names are Rhett Lashlee at SMU and Jon Sumrall at Tulane.  While it’s refreshing to hear that we have moved from Gus Malzahn to his prodigal son Lashlee, I just don’t see it happening.  The roots of that coaching tree were poisoned long ago, and look how hiring the SMU coach panned out last time with Chad Morris.  I know nothing about Sumrall, other than he must have replaced Willie Fritz, whose name was floated around during the last coaching search.  Jon Gruden’s name continues to surface, but that also seems unrealistic.  Gruden has never coached college football, and was abruptly fired by the Las Vegas Raiders due to some racist emails.  If Bobby Petrino can get things turned around as interim coach, he deserves a look.  He’s probably the most accomplished coach who would consider working here. 

Todd:

It won’t be Jon Gruden or Gus Malzahn. Hog fans are obsessed with the same names every coaching search. Petrino is also not the answer. His offense scored 7,3, and zero points in the second half the last three games. Hey let's split the fan base again. You go this route and we are right back here in less than 5 years going through another coaching change. We need a coach under the age of 55. Someone who knows how to talk to young athletes, work NIL correctly, and has the fire and energy to recruit, coach, and work well with other coaches. Rhett Lashlee is the hot name. I just don’t know why he would leave a rich alumni base, a straight pathway to the playoff with a decent team in the AAC, and be paid well.  No one knows who it will be. Where is David Shaw at? Who used to be at Stanford?

The Picks:

Arkansas @ #12 Tennessee

Craig:

Arkansas dumped Sam Pittman after a rough 2-3 start and a blowout loss to Notre Dame, paving the way for Bobby Petrino’s dramatic return. Despite past success, Petrino inherits a team plagued by turnovers and a porous run defense, now facing a surging Tennessee squad with a relentless ground game and explosive offense. The Vols, fresh off a bye week and hungry after a near-miss against Georgia, will overpower the Hogs in a high-scoring shootout. 

Tennessee 48 Arkansas 31.

David:

I am curious to see how the team responds to Petrino. The offense was doing pretty well up until halftime in Memphis. Since then, Coach Sam Pittman and three defensive coaches have been relieved of their duties.  I’ve heard conjecture that the team might give up, but that seems unlikely in the era of NIL payments and the transfer portal. Players must perform if they want that level of recognition.  I suspect that the Hogs will give a better effort than they did against Notre Dame, but still fall short.  

Tennessee 35 Arkansas 24

Todd:

The Vols are a missed field goal away from beating Georgia and from being ranked in the top 5 easily. Maybe top 3. The defense is still the defense. No pass rush and pressure on the quarterback. Vols #1 pass offense in the conference and our Hogs at the bottom. The Vols have only given up 4 sacks this year. It will still be 4 sacks after this game. Rumor has it Arkansas spent 80% of their NIL on the offense. You can tell. Hogs will keep up for a half. Good news Petrino won’t kick a FG on 4th down and 2 on a first drive deep in Vol territory on the road.  But eventually the turnovers will rear their ugly heads again and Tennessee will pull away. Hogs have 8 turnovers in the last four games. 

You are going to have to score 40 to win this game. Hogs don’t get there.

Volunteers 49 Hogs 31

#6 Oklahoma vs. Texas (Cotton Bowl)

Craig:

The Oklahoma vs. Texas showdown is more than just the Red River Rivalry this year—it's a high-stakes battle for survival in the SEC. Texas, struggling with a faltering offense and a tough road schedule, faces elimination from playoff contention if it loses, while Oklahoma seeks redemption from last year's blowout and aims to stay undefeated before a brutal stretch of games. Both teams are dealing with quarterback uncertainties, especially around Oklahoma’s John Mateer, whose potential return could shift the dynamics. Expect this game to be a defensive grind.  OU 21 Texas 17.

Todd:

Texas and the preseason Heisman favorite Archie Manning have struggled against the likes of UTEP. Defense kept them in the Ohio State game. Then lost at Florida.

You thought Florida’s defense was tough? Wait til you see the Sooners defense. OU is leading the nation, averaging 4.2 sacks and 10 tackles for loss per game. OU QB John Mateer is questionable for this game. If he is healthy and plays - Sooners 31 Horns 14 

If he is out. OU 21 Texas 14.

Either way. Long day for Manning.

#8Alabama @ #14 Missouri

Alabama is coming off two emotional wins against Georgia and Vanderbilt while Mizzou took a break from their cupcake schedule for a relaxing bye week.  Factoring in homefield advantage for Mizzou, the Crimson Tide cannot afford to overlook the Tigers.  Mizzou should hang around until the end, and could possibly pull the upset.  Bama 27 Mizzou 25.

Missouri has rolled through a absolute brutal schedule of Central Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana, South Carolina, and Massachusetts. Tide 28-24.

Tusk to Tail: Can the Hogs pull off a upset in the "The Holtz Bowl?"

 

Question of the week:

After four games this season what is your revised season record prediction?

Dale:

Well, I've been at all 4 games so far.  It's been hard to watch the way we lost those games.  After Ole Miss, I was
still at 7.  I'd have to drop to 5 now.  I still think we can out score some folks despite our defense but it's not going to
be easy.

Forrest:
After the first four games my thought about the season remains the same. 4-8 or 5-7 at best. Would love to be proven wrong but they haven’t given me much hope. Always next year!




#22 Notre Dame @ Arkansas

Todd:

Another week, another fumble. You seriously can't make this stuff up. Since 2020, the Hogs have racked up 113 fumbles, the most in the nation. Now it's time for the Holtz Bowl — fitting, since Lou Holtz coached at both schools and will be a honorary captain for Arkansas at the game. Taylen continues to put up big numbers, averaging over 300 passing yards per game, and Arkansas is ranked 6th nationally in third-down conversions. But then there's the defense — giving up third downs at a brutal 56% clip, with a D-line that can't pressure the quarterback. The Irish defense isn’t much better in that department, but that won’t matter if Arkansas can’t stop the run. Last week, the Hogs gave up 7 yards per carry to Memphis, and the secondary was nowhere to be found. Now they face two elite backs in Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, who are on a completely different level. If you thought tackling Memphis was bad, wait until these two get going. Offensively, the Hogs are stalling too — they scored just 7 points in the second half against Ole Miss, and only 3 last week against Memphis. That’s exactly where they’ll lose this one. In the second half. Now it would be just like Arkansas to go win this thing. But I just don't see it. The good news? It probably won't come down to a third last-possession fumble for the third straight week. 

Then again… it might. Irish 44, Hogs 35.

Dale:
I'm hoping Notre Dame continues to struggle with D as we do and they are not comfortable on the road. 

I think the Hogs have the better QB, I'll take the Hogs at 31-27 over the Domers.

Forrest:
For a game that generated so much preseason excitement, the last two weeks couldn’t have killed that joy any more. The defense has left so much to be desired. Notre Dames defense isn’t stellar either so we might be looking at another shootout. Interested to see how the hogs end this one. I’ve got the over of 63 and Notre Dame winning 38-31.


#4 LSU @ #13 Ole Miss

Forrest:
What a dandy this could be. Not to mention the drama behind the scenes of Kiffin’s daughter hard launching her relationship with LSU’s Star linebacker and defensive captain. Gasp! Excited to watch the battle of Trinidad Chambliss vs this LSU defense. Whoever wins that battle will win the game. So get ready with me. Give me under 56.5 and Ole Miss to win 28-21.

Todd:

The Rebels have yet to face a actual defense. They will this week. LSU 31-24.

#17 Alabama @ #5 Georgia

Dale:

No dominant teams in the SEC anymore, which makes each week more interesting, but this is still a bit of a blockbuster.
I'm not sure you can pick against UGA at home with after the performance we saw from BAMA while at FSU. 
I'll take the Dogs in a close one, UGA 24, Bama 20.

Todd:

This isn't Nick Saban's Alabama anymore. Dawgs 31-21.

Auburn @ #9 Texas A&M


Forrest:
What a brutal way for Auburn to lose a must win game against Oklahoma last week. Just kidding. Couldn’t happen to a more deserving school. I think the Aggies will make quick work of the Tigers this week. Texas A&M 42-28.
#6 Oregon @ #3 Penn State
This will be a good one, I've paid attention to these two teams scores but have not watched them play as of yet.
Oregon has been scoring in bunches, that might slow down on the road but I still like their chances to beat PSU.
Oregon 36, PSU 30